ELIMINATION TUESDAY: What you need to know about 5 primaries

- Primaries are underway Tuesday in Ohio, Florida, Illinois, North Carolina and Missouri. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Ohio Gov. John Kasich are both hoping to pull off victories in their home states and put a squeeze on Donald Trump’s delegate count. Here’s an overview of what’s at stake on Elimination Tuesday:

DEMOCRATS
691 Delegates are at stake on March 15
All of these races are proportional

Current Delegate Count

Clinton: 1,234 (467 are Superdelegates)
Sanders: 579 (26 are Superdelegates)

Recent Polling

Florida: Clinton leads between 21 percent to 26 percent in the three most recent polls, with an average lead of 28.7 percent in polls conducted this month

Ohio: Clinton leads between 5 percent and 14 percent in the three most recent polls, with an average lead of 8 percent in polls conducted this month

Illinois: Clinton leads in three of most recent polls, Sanders leads in one. Average is within margin of error, Five Thirty Eight predicts Clinton wins with 90 percent probability.

Missouri: Only two polls conducted, each wins one. Five Thirty Eight projects the results will be within a percentage point.

North Carolina: Clinton leads between 19 percent and 24 percent in the two most recent polls, with an average lead of 23.7 percent in polls conducted this month

REPUBLICANS
367 Delegates are at stake on March 15
Four of the five races are winner-take-all, only North Carolina is proportional

Current Delegate Count

Trump: 460
Cruz: 370
Rubio: 163
Kasich: 63

Recent Polling

Florida: Trump leads between 17 percent to 25 percent in the five most recent polls, with an average lead of 18.6 percent in polls conducted this month.

Ohio: Kasich leads between 5 percent and 6 percent in the two most recent polls, Kasich averages 3.7 percent leads in polls from this month. Five Thirty Eight gives Kasich 87 percent probability of winning.

Illinois: Trump leads between 4 percent and 13 percent in the three most recent polls, with an average lead of 8.7% in polls conducted this month. Five Thirty Eight gives Trump and 63 percent chance.

Missouri: Only one poll conducted, gives Trump a 7 percent edge over Cruz. No legit forecast for how Missouri will vote.

North Carolina: Trump leads between 6 percent and 20 percent in the three most recent polls, with an average lead of 12.8 percent in polls conducted this month. Five Thirty Eight gives Trump an 89 percent chance.

CONCLUSION

If these polls hold water, it will be a big night for Trump and Clinton. Watch for those Michigan-like storyline upsets which will swing the delegate counts away from the current leaders, especially on the Republican side with four winner-take-all races.

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