Old Farmer's Almanac winter forecast: How much snow will Philadelphia area get this year?

PHILADELPHIA - Winter is looking milder than usual for the Philadelphia area based on predictions by the Old Farmer's Almanac for the upcoming season.

What we know:

Philadelphia and its surrounding counties are expected to see above-average temperatures and slightly below-normal snowfall this season. Last winter, one major snow storm brought over 14 inches to parts of Philadelphia and more than 16 inches to the surrounding area.

Although a reprieve from relentless freezing is anticipated this year, experts say winter will still make its presence known during a few key windows.

When to expect cold and snow

Timeline:

While overall precipitation and snowfall are predicted to be slightly below normal, you will still need a shovel.

• Coldest stretches: Early to mid-December, early to mid-January, and early and late February.
• Snowiest periods: Late November, early and mid-January, early and late February, and late March.

What’s shaping the forecast

Dig deeper:

The Old Farmer's Almanac says these signs of the season are already appearing, and helped them shape this year's winter outlook:

• El Niño: A strong El Niño has returned, warming the equatorial Pacific and shifting the jet stream. This typically favors milder temperatures across the East Coast.
• Waning solar activity: Solar Cycle 25 has passed its peak. Historically, high solar activity has been linked to warmer averages, meaning this drop-off introduces a cooling variable.
• Polar vortex: If the swirling pool of Arctic air shifts south, the region could still see intense, bitter cold fronts dropping down from Canada.
• Ocean and wind patterns: The Atlantic remains warm, while a regular shift in high-altitude equatorial winds (the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) and a neutral-to-positive Indian Ocean Dipole could steer stronger storms our way.