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Groundhog Day 2026: Punxsutawney Phil makes annual weather prediction.
Punxsutawney Phil emerged from his stump on Groundhog Day to deliver his annual weather forecast.
PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa. - Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of six more weeks of winter appears to be strong heading into February, as forecasters expect a Polar Vortex to continue pumping cold air along the East Coast and beyond.
How accurate is Punxsutawney Phil?
By the numbers:
Punxsutawney Phil has been making weather predictions since 1887, a tradition with ties to ancient farming traditions in Europe.
According to StormFax, Phil has seen his shadow 109 times and has forecasted an early spring on just 21 occasions.
Punxsutawney Phil's forecasts have been accurate 39% of the time since he began predicting an early spring or more winter in 1887.
Overall, StormFax says, Phil's weather predictions have been correct 39% of the time. In the last 10 years, he's been right four times.
The last time Phil predicted an early spring was in 2024. Below are Phil's predictions over the last 10 years:
2026 - More winter
2025 - More winter
2024 - Early spring
2023 - More winter
2022 - More winter
2021 - More winter
2020 - Early spring
2019 - Early spring
2018 - More winter
2017 - More winter
2016 - Early spring
Forecasting February
What we know:
Phil's forecast appears to be strong heading into February, as meteorologists on the East Coast expect bitter cold temperatures to continue.
The Climate Prediction Center's February Temperature Outlook shows high confidence for below-average temperatures for the month.
Groundhog Day 2026: Punxsutawney Phil sees shadow, signaling six more weeks of winter
Punxsutawney Phil emerged from his tree stump on Monday and saw his shadow, signaling six more weeks of winter.
This is due to a weakening Polar Vortex that forecasters believe could shift or split and continue funneling artic into the East Coast.
If this forecast holds, the combination of a cold January and this pattern could produce one of the coldest winters in years for much of the region.
What they're saying:
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro called Monday's Groundhog Day celebration "one of the many events that make our Commonwealth unique."
"Groundhog Day is a time-honored celebration of Pennsylvania’s rich culture and sense of community, bringing together thousands of visitors from around the world," the governor added.
The Associated Press contributed to this report