Will your Thanksgiving meal be cheaper this year?

WASHINGTON - Thanksgiving is less than a week away, and many Americans say they're stressed about the price of their holiday dinners.

The White House, though, is touting lower prices for your Thanksgiving favorites this year. But what do the numbers say?

Here's what we know.

Thanksgiving meal prices down?

By the numbers:

In her press briefing Thursday, Leavitt cited the American Farm Bureau Federation's annual Thanksgiving dinner survey. They found the price of a Thanksgiving dinner this year has "moderately declined." The price of a dinner for 10, they found, was $55.18, down about $3 from 2024.

The biggest contributing factor is the price of turkeys. Researchers have found the wholesale price of turkeys is up anywhere from 40 to 75%, but the AFBF's survey found that the price of frozen turkeys has dropped 16% since 2024. Dinner rolls (14.6%), stuffing (9%) and cranberries (2.8%) have also seen price drops since last Thanksgiving, they found.

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Other common Thanksgiving foods have gone up in price, like veggie trays (61%) and sweet potatoes (37%). AFBF economists said factors like the devastating hurricane damage in North Carolina (which produces more than half of the sweet potatoes in the U.S.), combined with worker shortages and higher labor costs on farms have pushed prices on fruits and vegetables up.

The ABFB's survey only looks at eight items, though — turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, rolls, peas, cranberries, veggie trays, and pumpkin pies with whipped cream. 

That leaves off common Thanksgiving sides like macaroni and cheese, corn, or mashed potatoes. A recent look at prices from the Century Foundation found that prices for all of those items went up this year. And if you don't like turkey, ham may no longer be in your price range. They found the price of an 8-pound bone-in spiral ham is up nearly 50% from 2024 to 2025. 

Dig deeper:

The White House has also used things like Walmart's prepackaged Thanksgiving Day meal baskets to illustrate an alleged drop in prices this season. This year's baskets are selling for $40, compared to $56 in 2024, the Associated Press found. But that may be for good reason. This year's basket has nearly half as many items.

Average food costs up

Big picture view:

The overall picture, though, at least according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is that prices on food are up, compared to last year. Their latest data from September shows that all food costs about 3% more than it did a year ago, though for groceries that number is slightly less.

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So, what does this all mean for your Thanksgiving plate? It depends on what you have on your plate. If you're a ham and mac and cheese family, your Thanksgiving dinner will probably be more expensive, according to this data. If you go with frozen turkeys and cranberry sauce, your bill might drop a bit compared to last year's.

How are people feeling about Thanksgiving prices?

What they're saying:

The raw data and human perception are two different things, though. Progressive think tank Data For Progress asked Americans how they're feeling about costs this Thanksgiving. They surveyed more than 1,200 people over the past weekend.

Of the people they surveyed, they found 65% were stressed about expenses related to the holiday, like travel and groceries. Those perceptions differ pretty greatly across party lines though. Nearly three quarters of Democrats say they're stressed, while less than 60% of Republicans agreed.

Americans also seem more worried this year compared to last. About a quarter of the people surveyed said they think it will be "significantly harder than last year" to afford a typical Thanksgiving meal this year, while a third say they think it will be "about the same."