Who leads 2026 Texas Senate race? Paxton vs. Talarico poll tracker
A look ahead to 2026 November midterm elections
Coming into these elections, some knew that it could be a the challenging year for republicans, and we are seeing that in some of these races, Governor Abbott holding a slight lead over Hinojosa, and the Democrat James Talarico now leading over Ken Paxton in the closely watched race for U.S. Senate.
AUSTIN, Texas - Polls have shown the hotly contested U.S. Senate race in Texas is in a dead heat.
What we know:
Republican and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton faces Democrat and state Rep. James Talarico for the seat currently held by U.S. Sen. John Cornyn.
The chart below shows the results of various non-partisan public polling as reported by the Texas Politics Project and FOX Local.
What you should know about this chart
Each poll was conducted independently and may differ in its voter sample, methodology, question wording and candidate choices. Values between the plotted points were not measured. Apparent rises or falls may reflect differences between polls rather than actual changes in voter support. The latest point represents the newest individual poll, not a consensus estimate or forecast.
Some polls included Libertarian Ted Brown as a response option, while others asked only about Paxton and Talarico. Candidate percentages therefore are not directly comparable in every case.
Polls are arranged chronologically, but the horizontal spacing between points does not represent the amount of time between surveys. Polls with overlapping field periods are separate observations. Their placement next to one another should not be read as sequential movement.
Where do they stand?
FOX Local is publishing stories each week leading up to the start of early voting in Texas on Oct. 19 about the positions of both Paxton and Talarico on a variety of issues. Here's a round up of the coverage:
- Talarico vs. Paxton: Who has the better plan to lower costs?
- Talarico vs. Paxton: Different plans for Texas’ data center boom
- Talarico vs. Paxton: Who has the better approach to healthcare affordability?
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Talarico vs. Paxton: Who has the better approach to healthcare affordability?
With a little under a month before election day, polls still have Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton in a close race to become the next senator from Texas. Among the top issues on voters' minds is healthcare affordability.
Previous coverage of Texas U.S. Senate race polling
- May 29, 2026: Talarico leads Paxton in first post-runoff poll of Senate race
- June 23, 2026: Paxton vs. Talarico: Here's how they stack up in the latest poll
- July 31, 2026: New poll gives Talarico slight lead over Paxton, shows governor’s race tied
- Aug. 7, 2026: New Texas polls show a tight Senate race between Talarico and Paxton
- Aug. 25, 2026: Senate poll finds Texas Democrats more energized as Talarico leads Paxton
- Aug. 27, 2026: Talarico leads Paxton as Texas voters rank affordability top concern, poll finds
- Sept. 2, 2026: Texas voters split on top races, oppose data centers and Flock-style camera
- Sept. 14, 2026: Talarico leads Paxton in new Texas Senate poll, but race shifts among older voters
- Sept. 17, 2026: Talarico, Paxton in dead heat in latest Texas Senate poll
- Sept. 22, 2026: Talarico holds narrow lead over Paxton in latest Texas Senate poll
- Sept. 23, 2026: New poll puts Talarico ahead in Texas Senate race
- Sept. 25, 2026: Talarico's lead narrows over Paxton in Texas US Senate race
- Oct. 2, 2026: Talarico holds razor-thin lead over Paxton in Fox News poll
- Oct. 6, 2026: Talarico continues to lead polls as spending ramps up in Texas Senate race
- Oct. 8, 2026: Talarico leads Paxton among younger Texas voters, new poll shows
When can I vote?
Early voting in Texas begins Oct. 19. Election Day is Nov. 3. Polling locations vary by county, so consult your local elections agency for that information.
The Source: Information in this story came from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin and previous FOX Local reporting. AI was used to help write the "What you should know" section of this story.